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2014. november 19., szerda 11:00 |
UBP's Outlook 2015: "Divergence" |
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Geneva, 19 November, 2014 (APA/OTS) - Contrary to expectations,
Europe did not undergo a healing process in 2014; whilst long-dated
bonds generated remarkable performances, European equities
underperformed. "The United States wheeled its economy into
intensive care but other developed countries didn't follow suit, and
their economies suffered relapses and found themselves back under
observation," says Patrice Gautry, UBP's Chief Economist. |
This being the case, the gap between these developed economies and
the United States is becoming ever wider; the US is taking up the
mantel of economic engine, which in turn is exacerbating this
divergence. Whilst the US economy will continue to grow and will
live up to its post-crisis growth potential, Europe will once again
find itself almost stagnating. Furthermore, just as the US Federal
Reserve is winding up its quantitative easing programme and
beginning to think about gradually raising interest rates over the
course of 2015, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are continuing to
inject liquidity; this means that the US yield curve will continue
to offer better returns than those in either Europe or Japan.
A sense of déjá vu "There are similarities between the current financial and monetary
regimes and those of 1994-2000," explains Jean-Sylvain Perrig, UBP's
Chief Investment Officer (CIO). Even if the economic potential is
significantly weaker today than it was twenty years ago - equity
performance expectations are lower -, divergence is once again
appearing: the United States had started to raise its rates in 1994,
whereas Japan, bogged down by deflation, lowered its rates, as did
the recently-reunited Germany. The period was marked by the wave of
innovation that came with the beginnings of the Internet, falling
commodity prices and the excess savings in Asia that were looking
for returns and found themselves being invested in US assets.
Today, the German economy is struggling and Europe is suffering from
overcapacity; confidence is not returning and the threat of
deflation looms large. There is still a pressing need for structural
reform and increased coordination between budgetary and monetary
policies. The ECB may well continue to support banks and inject
liquidity, but there is not much more it can do. "It could be that
the OECD - except the US - is going to be stuck in a cycle of
recovery, crisis and stagnation but without seeing any periods of
stable growth," adds Gautry.
Favour US equity markets In 2015, the US dollar is likely to continue on its upward, secular
trend. "Contrary to the belief that a rising dollar would be a bad
thing for US equity markets, history shows us that there isn't any
correlation between the two," Perrig continues.
US equity markets enjoy good visibility and should therefore
continue to perform well, thanks, amongst other things, to
sustainable growth, which is set to come in at around 3%, interest
rates which continue to be very low, and generous share buy-backs.
"It is these assets which should be favoured, especially those
related to the health-care and technology sectors - this is where we
are seeing the best earnings revisions and great growth potential,
which should translate into an increase in premiums for these
sectors over the rest of the market," underlines Perrig.
In contrast, European equity markets are looking less attractive, as
earnings' growth expectations are very high and will have to be
revised downwards. Companies in emerging markets are generally set
to suffer from falling profitability, the strength of the dollar and
unattractive valuations. In parallel to this, and in light of excess
debt and overcapacity in Europe and Japan, rates will remain very
low; this means that carry will have to be sought in the high-yield
space. "The period ahead of us should therefore be better but more
volatile than the last eighteen months," concludes the CIO.
For any further information, please contact Jérôme Koechlin, Head of Corporate Communications, tel. +41 58 819 26 40, e-mail jko@ubp.ch
About Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) UBP is one of Switzerland's leading private banks, and is among the
best-capitalised, with a Tier I ratio of 28%. The Bank specialises
in wealth management for both private and institutional clients. It
is based in Geneva and employs about 1,350 people in some twenty
locations worldwide; it held CHF 95 billion (EUR 78 billion) in
assets under management as at 30 June 2013. www.ubp.com | www.ubpperform.com
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